среда, 11 марта 2020 г.

11 Project Risk Management

Project Risk Management includes the processes of conducting risk management planning, identification, analysis, response planning, response implementation, and monitoring risk on a project. The objectives of project risk management are to increase the probability and/or impact of positive risks and to decrease the probability and/or impact of negative risks, in order to optimize the chances of project success.

Key Concepts for Project Risk Management


All projects are risky since they are unique undertakings with varying degrees of complexity that aim to deliver benefits. They do this in a context of constraints and assumptions, while responding to stakeholder expectations that may be conflicting and changing. Organizations should choose to take project risk in a controlled and intentional manner in order to create value while balancing risk and reward.

When unmanaged, these risks have the potential to cause the project to deviate from the plan and fail to achieve the defined project objectives.

Two level of of risks:

  1. Individual project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives.
  2. Overall project risk is the effect of uncertainty on the project as a whole, arising from all sources of uncertainty including individual risks, representing the exposure of stakeholders to the implications of variations in project outcome, both positive and negative.

Risk can be positive (opportunity) and negative (threat).

Risk is initially addressed during project planning by shaping the project strategy. Risk should also be monitored and managed as the project progresses to ensure that the project stays on track and emergent risks are addressed.

The project team needs to know what level of risk exposure is acceptable in pursuit of the project objectives. This is defined by measurable risk thresholds that reflect the risk appetite of the organization and project stakeholders. Risk thresholds express the degree of acceptable variation around a project objective. They are explicitly stated and communicated to the project team and reflected in the definitions of risk impact levels for the project.

Trends and Emerging Practices in Project Risk Management


  • Non-event risks.
    • Variability risk. Uncertainty exists about some key characteristics of a planned event or activity or decision. Examples of variability risks include: productivity may be above or below target, the number of errors found during testing may be higher or lower than expected. It can be addressed using Monte Carlo analysis, with the range of variation reflected in probability distributions, followed by actions to reduce the spread of possible outcomes.
    • Ambiguity risk. Uncertainty exists about what might happen in the future. Ambiguity risks are managed by defining those areas where there is a deficit of knowledge or understanding, then filling the gap by obtaining expert external input or bench-marking against best practices. Ambiguity is also addressed through incremental development, prototyping, or simulation.
  • Project resilience. These are risks that can only be recognized after they have occurred. Emergent risks can be tackled through developing project resilience. This requires each project to have:
    • Right level of budget and schedule contingency for emergent risks, in addition to a specific risk budget for known risks;
    • Flexible project processes that can cope with emergent risk while maintaining overall direction toward project goals, including strong change management;
    • Empowered project team that has clear objectives and that is trusted to get the job done within agreed-upon limits;
    • Frequent review of early warning signs to identify emergent risks as early as possible;
    • Clear input from stakeholders to clarify areas where the project scope or strategy can be adjusted in response to emergent risks.
  • Integrated risk management. Projects exist in an organizational context, and they may form part of a program or portfolio. Risk exists at each of these levels, and risks should be owned and managed at the appropriate level. This builds risk efficiency into the structure of programs and portfolios, providing the greatest overall value for a given level of risk exposure.

Tailoring Considerations


  • Project size by.
    • Budget,
    • Duration,
    • Scope, or
    • Team size.
  • Project complexity.
  • Project importance.
  • Development approach. Waterfall, iterative, agile, ...

Considerations for Agile/Adaptive Environments


High-variability environments, by definition, incur more uncertainty and risk -> use of frequent reviews of incremental work products and cross-functional project teams to accelerate knowledge sharing and ensure that risk is understood and managed. Risk is considered when selecting the content of each iteration, and risks will also be identified, analyzed, and managed during each iteration.

Additionally, the requirements are kept as a living document that is updated regularly, and work may be reprioritized as the project progresses, based on an improved understanding of current risk exposure.

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