Description: the process of numerically analyzing the combined effect of identified individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty on overall project objectives. It usually requires specialized risk software and expertise in the development and interpretation of risk models. It also consumes additional time and cost. It is the only reliable method to assess overall project risk through evaluating the aggregated effect on project outcomes of all individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty. It uses information on individual project risks that have been assessed by the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process.
Key benefit: it quantifies overall project risk exposure, can also provide additional quantitative risk information to support risk planning.
Frequency: throughout the project (if used on the project).
Process / Asset Group
Input
The Process
Output
Process / Asset Group
Project Management Plan
Risk Management Plan
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Risk Report
Project Documents
Scope baseline
Schedule baseline
Cost baseline
Project Documents
Assumption log
Base of estimates
Cost estimates
Cost forecasts
Duration Estimates
Milestone list
Resource requirements
Risk register
Risk report
Schedule forecasts
Enterprise / Organization
Enterprise Environment Factors
Organizational process assets
11.4.1 Inputs
11.4.1.1 Project Management Plan
Risk management plan. Whether quantitative risk analysis is required for the project. It also details the resources available for the analysis and the expected frequency of analyses.
Scope baseline. The starting point from which the effect of individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty are evaluated.
Schedule baseline. The starting point from which the effect of individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty can be evaluated.
Cost baseline. The starting point from which the effect of individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty can be evaluated.
11.4.1.2 Project Documents
Assumption log.
Basis of estimates. It may be reflected in variability modeled during a quantitative risk analysis process. This may include information on the estimate's purpose, classification, assumed accuracy, methodology, and source.
Cost estimates.
Cost forecasts. Estimate to complete (ETC), estimate at completion (EAC), budget at completion (BAC), and to-complete performance index (TCPI) may be compared to the results of a quantitative cost risk analysis to determine the confidence level associated with achieving these targets.
Duration estimates.
Milestone list.
Resource requirements.
Risk register.
Risk report.
Schedule forecast.
11.4.1.3 Enterprise Environmental Factors
Industry studies of similar projects;
Published material, including commercial risk databases or checklists.
11.4.1.4 Organizational Process Assets
Information from similar completed projects.
14.4.2 Tools and Techniques
11.4.2.1 Expert Judgement
Translating information on individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty into numeric inputs for the quantitative risk analysis model,
Selecting the most appropriate representation of uncertainty to model particular risks or other sources of uncertainty,
Modeling techniques that are appropriate in the context of the project,
Identifying which tools would be most suitable for the selected modeling techniques, and
Interpreting the outputs of quantitative risk analysis.
14.4.2.2 Data Gathering
Interviews.
14.4.2.3 Interpersonal and Team Skills
Facilitation.
14.4.2.4 Representations of Uncertainty
Range of possible values with distribution types:
Triangular
Normal
Lognormal
Beta
Uniform
Discrete
Risks as probabilistic branches. Branches are most useful for risks that might occur independently of any planned activity. Where risks are related, for example, with a common cause or a logical dependency, correlation is used in the model to indicate this relationship.
14.4.2.5 Data Analysis
Simulation. A model that simulates the combined effects of individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty to evaluate their potential impact on achieving project objectives. a criticality analysis that determines which elements of the risk model have the greatest effect on the project critical path. A criticality index is calculated for each element in the risk model, which gives the frequency with which that element appears on the critical path during the simulation, usually expressed as a percentage.
Sensitivity analysis. Which individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty have the most potential impact on project outcomes. It correlates variations in project outcomes with variations in elements of the quantitative risk analysis model.
Decision tree analysis used to support selection of the best of several alternative courses of action. Alternative paths through the project are shown in the decision tree using branches representing different decisions or events, each of which can have associated costs and related individual project risks (including both threats and opportunities). The end-points of branches in the decision tree represent the outcome from following that particular path, which can be negative or positive.
Influence diagrams. graphical aids to decision making under uncertainty. An influence diagram represents a project or situation within the project as a set of entities, outcomes, and influences, together with the relationships and effects between them. Where an element in the influence diagram is uncertain as a result of the existence of individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty, this can be represented in the influence diagram using ranges or probability distributions. The influence diagram is then evaluated using a simulation technique, such as Monte Carlo analysis, to indicate which elements have the greatest influence on key outcomes. Outputs from an influence diagram are similar to other quantitative risk analysis methods, including S-curves and tornado diagrams.
11.4.3 Outputs
11.4.3.1 Project Documents Updates
Risk report:
Assessment of overall project risk exposure.
Chances of project success, indicated by the probability that the project will achieve its key objectives.
Degree of inherent variability remaining within the project at the time the analysis was conducted, indicated by the range of possible project outcomes.
Detailed probabilistic analysis of the project. S-curves, tornado diagrams, and criticality analysis, together with a narrative interpretation of the results.
Amount of contingency reserve needed to provide a specified level of confidence;
Identification of individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty that have the greatest effect on the project critical path; and
Major drivers of overall project risk, with the greatest influence on uncertainty in project outcomes.
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