пятница, 13 марта 2020 г.

11.2 Identify Risks

Description: it is the process of identifying individual project risks as well as resources of overall project risks, and documenting their characteristics.

Key benefit: documentation of existing individual project risks and the sources of overall project risks.

Frequency: throughout the project. An iterative process

Process / Asset GroupInputThe ProcessOutputProcess / Asset Group
Project Management PlanRequirements management plan11.2 Identify RisksRisk registerProject Documents
Schedule management planRisk Report
Cost management plan Assumption log
Resource management planIssue log
Quality management planLesson learned register
Risk management plan
Scope baseline
Schedule baseline
Cost baseline
Project DocumentsAssumption log
Cost estimates
Duration estimates
Issue log
Lesson learned register
Requirements documentation
Resource requirements
Stakeholder register
12.1 Plan Procurement ManagementProcurement documentation
12.2 Conduct ProcurementsAgreements
Enterprise / OrganizationEnterprise environment factors
Organizational process assets

All project stakeholders should be encouraged to identify individual project risks. It is particularly important to involve the project team so they can develop and maintain a sense of ownership and responsibility for identified individual project risks, the level of overall project risk, and associated risk response actions.

Risk owners for individual project risks may be nominated as part of the Identify Risks process, and will be confirmed during the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process. Preliminary risk responses may also be identified and recorded and will be reviewed and confirmed as part of the Plan Risk Responses process.

11.2.1 Inputs


11.2.1.1 Project Management Plan


  • Requirements management plan. May indicate project objectives that are particularly at risk.
  • Schedule management plan. May identify areas that are subject to uncertainty or ambiguity.
  • Cost management plan.
  • Quality management plan.
  • Resource management plan.
  • Risk management plan.
  • Scope baseline.
  • Schedule baseline.
  • Cost baseline.

11.2.1.2 Project Documents


  • Assumption log.
  • Cost estimates.
  • Duration estimates.
  • Issue log.
  • Lessons learned register.
  • Requirements documentation.
  • Resource requirements.
  • Stakeholder register.

11.2.1.3 Agreements


It may have information such as milestone dates, contract type, acceptance criteria, and awards and penalties that can present threats or opportunities.

11.2.1.4 Procurement Documentation


The initial procurement documentation should be reviewed as procuring goods and services from outside the organization may increase or decrease overall project risk and may introduce additional individual project risks.

11.2.1.5 Enterprise Environment Factors


  • Published material, including commercial risk databases or checklists,
  • Academic studies,
  • Benchmarking results, and
  • Industry studies of similar projects.

11.2.1.6 Organizational Process Assets


Project files, including actual data,
Organizational and project process controls,
Risk statement formats, and
Checklists from previous similar projects.

11.2.2 Tools and Techniques


11.2.2.1 Expert Judgement


11.2.2.2 Data Gathering


  • Brainstorming. The goal of brainstorming is to obtain a comprehensive list of individual project risks and sources of overall project risk. Categories of risk, such as in a risk breakdown structure, can be used as a framework. Particular attention should be paid to ensuring that risks identified through brainstorming are clearly described, since the technique can result in ideas that are not fully formed.
  • Checklists. Risk checklists are developed based on historical information and knowledge that has been accumulated from similar projects and from other sources of information. The organization may maintain a risk checklist based on its own completed projects or may use generic risk checklists from the industry. While a checklist may be quick and simple to use, it is impossible to build an exhaustive one, and care should be taken to ensure the checklist is not used to avoid the effort of proper risk identification.
  • Interviews.

11.2.2.3 Data Analysis


  • Root cause analysis.
  • Assumption and constraint analysis. Threats may be identified from the inaccuracy, instability, inconsistency, or incompleteness of assumptions. Constraints may give rise to opportunities through removing or relaxing a limiting factor that affects the execution of a project or process.
  • SWOT analysis. (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats)
  • Document analysis.

11.2.2.4 Interpersonal and Team Skills


Facilitation.

11.2.2.5 Prompt Lists


A predetermined list of risk categories that might give rise to individual project risks and that could also act as sources of overall project risk. The risk categories in the lowest level of the risk breakdown structure can be used as a prompt list for individual project risks.

  • PESTLE (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental).
  • TECOP (technical, environmental, commercial, operational, political), or
  • VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity).

11.2.2.6 Meetings


Often called a risk workshop.

11.2.3 Outputs


11.2.3.1 Risk Register


It captures details of identified individual project risks. May contain limited or extensive risk information depending on project variables such as size and complexity.

A short risk title, risk category, current risk status, one or more causes, one or more effects on objectives, risk triggers (events or conditions that indicate that a risk is about to occur), WBS reference of affected activities, and timing information (when was the risk identified, when might the risk occur, when might it no longer be relevant, and what is the deadline for taking action).

  • List of identified risks. Each individual project risk is given a unique identifier in the risk register. A structured risk statement may be used to distinguish risks from their cause(s) and their effect(s).
  • Potential risk owners. Where a potential risk owner has been identified during the Identify Risks process, the risk owner is recorded in the risk register. This will be confirmed during the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process.
  • List of potential risk responses.

11.2.3.2 Risk Report


Information on sources of overall project risk, together with summary information on identified individual project risks. It is developed progressively throughout the Project Risk Management process.

  • Sources of overall project risk, indicating which are the most important drivers of overall project risk exposure; and
  • Summary information on identified individual project risks, such as number of identified threats and opportunities, distribution of risks across risk categories, metrics and trends, etc.

11.2.3.3 Project Documents Updates


  • Assumption log.
  • Issue log.
  • Lessons learned register.


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