Description: the process of prioritizing individual project risks for further analysis or action by assessing their probability of occurrence and impact and other characteristics. Such assessments are subjective as they are based on perceptions of risk by the project team and other stakeholders. So it requires explicit identification and management of the risk attitudes of key participants. The process establishes the relative priorities of individual project risks for Plan Risk Responses. It identifies a risk owner for each risk who will take responsibility for planning an appropriate risk response and ensuring that it is implemented. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis also lays the foundation for Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis if this process is required.
Key benefits: it focuses effort on high-priority risks.
Frequency: throughout the project.
Process / Asset Group
Input
The process
Output
Process / Asset Group
Project Management Plan
Risk management plan
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Assumption log
Project Documents
Project Documents
Assumption log
Issue log
Risk register
Risk register
Stakeholder register
Risk report
Enterprise / Organization
Enterprise environment factors
Organization process assets
11.3.1 Inputs
11.3.1.1 Project Management Plan
The risk management plan. Roles and responsibilities for conducting risk management, budgets for risk management, schedule activities for risk management, risk categories (often defined in a risk breakdown structure), definitions of probability and impact, the probability and impact matrix, and stakeholders’ risk thresholds.
11.3.1.2 Project Documents
Assumption log. For identifying, managing, and monitoring key assumptions and constraints that may affect the project.
Risk register. Details of each identified individual project risk.
Stakeholder register. Details of project stakeholders who may be nominated as risk owners.
11.3.1.3 Enterprise Environment Factors
Industry studies of similar projects,
Published material, including commercial risk databases or checklists.
11.3.1.4 Organizational Process Assets
Information from similar completed projects.
11.3.2 Tools and Techniques
11.3.2.1 Expert Judgement
Previous similar projects, and
Qualitative risk analysis.
11.3.2.2 Data Gathering
Interviews.
11.3.2.3 Data Analysis
Risk data quality assessment. It may be assessed via a questionnaire measuring the project's stakeholder perceptions of various characteristics, which may include completeness, objectivity, relevancy, and timeliness. A weighted average of selected data quality characteristics can then be generated to give an overall quality score.
Risk probability and impact assessment. Probability and impact are assessed for each identified individual project risk. Differences in the levels of probability and impact perceived by stakeholders are to be expected, and such differences should be explored. Explanatory detail, including assumptions justifying the levels assigned, are also recorded. Risk probabilities and impacts are assessed using the definitions given in the risk management plan.
Assessment of other risk parameters.
Urgency. The period of time within which a response to the risk is to be implemented in order to be effective. A short period indicates high urgency.
Proximity. The period of time before the risk might have an impact on one or more project objectives. A short period indicates high proximity.
Dormancy. The period of time that may elapse after a risk has occurred before its impact is discovered. A short period indicates low dormancy.
Manageability. The ease with which the risk owner (or owning organization) can manage the occurrence or impact of a risk. Where management is easy, manageability is high.
Controllability. The degree to which the risk owner (or owning organization) is able to control the risk's outcome. Where the outcome can be easily controlled, controllability is high.
Detectability. The ease with which the results of the risk occurring, or being about to occur, can be detected and recognized. Where the risk occurrence can be detected easily, detectability is high.
Connectivity. The extent to which the risk is related to other individual project risks. Where a risk is connected to many other risks, connectivity is high.
Strategic impact. The potential for the risk to have a positive or negative effect on the organization's strategic goals. Where the risk has a major effect on strategic goals, strategic impact is high.
Propinquity. The degree to which a risk is perceived to matter by one or more stakeholders. Where a risk is perceived as very significant, propinquity is high.
11.3.2.4 Interpersonal and Team Skills
Facilitation.
11.3.2.5 Risk Categorization
Risks to the project can be categorized by
Sources of risk RBS;
The area of the project affected (WBS);
Common root causes ;
Other useful categories (e.g., project phase, project budget, and roles and responsibilities)
to determine the areas of the project most exposed to the effects of uncertainty. Risk categories that may be used for the project are defined in the risk management plan.
11.3.2.6 Data Representation
Probability and impact matrix. A grid for mapping the probability of each risk occurrence and its impact on project objectives if that risk occurs. This matrix specifies combinations of probability and impact that allow individual project risks to be divided into priority groups. Individual project risks are assigned to a priority level based on the combination of their assessed probability and impact, using a probability and impact matrix.
Hierarchical charts. For 3d measure of risk bubble chart can be used.
11.3.2.7 Meetings
Risk workshop. The goals of this meeting include the review of previously identified risks, assessment of probability and impacts (and possibly other risk parameters), categorization, and prioritization. A risk owner, who will be responsible for planning an appropriate risk response and for reporting progress on managing the risk, will be allocated to each individual project risk as part of the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process.
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